Memoori: The seven key trends that are shaping the video surveillance market

Based on the latest findings from Memoori Research, top-line growth in the global video surveillance market has moderated from the high double-digit rates of the last decade. Yet the industry is still projected to grow from US$33.8 billion in 2024 to a robust US$47.9 billion by 2030. Ongoing market expansion, however, masks a series of fundamental structural shifts, with the market moving from reactive security deployments toward strategic, intelligence-driven infrastructure investments, where value is increasingly driven by actionable data and operational outcomes.
 
As we look ahead, the forces shaping the industry are less about incremental hardware improvements and more about the convergence of software, geopolitical dynamics, and new commercial models. Based on our latest research into the global video surveillance business from 2025 to 2030, the following trends will define the competitive landscape and dictate success for manufacturers, integrators, and end-users alike.
 

1. Software and analytics will be the key drivers for growth

For years, the lion’s share of industry value has been generated through hardware sales, but the center of gravity is now firmly shifting to software and analytics. While the overall market is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just under 6%, the video management software (VMS) and analytics segment is expanding at a much faster 8.6%.
 
This divergence reflects a fundamental change in customer priorities. Organizations are no longer just buying cameras to record video; they are investing in platforms that can transform that video into searchable, actionable intelligence. As a result, software’s share of the total market value is set to rise from approximately 17% in 2024 to nearly 20% by 2030. This trend is fueling the transition to recurring revenue models and forcing hardware-centric vendors to strengthen their software and ecosystem strategies to remain competitive.
 

2. AI goes mainstream

Artificial intelligence has officially moved beyond pilot projects and is becoming a default feature in modern surveillance systems. The most telling indicator of this shift is the rapid adoption of AI-capable cameras at the edge. Our latest market analysis projects that that cameras with on-device deep learning capabilities will grown from just 23% of global shipments in 2024 to a remarkable 64% by 2030.
 
This migration is fueled by both supply-side advances in efficient edge AI silicon and demand-side pressures for faster, more reliable analytics. Many end-users report seeing tangible ROI from investments into these new cameras, with AI-based object detection reportedly reducing false positive alerts by more than 95% in remote monitoring applications. As the price delta between AI and non-AI cameras shrinks, embedded intelligence is becoming a standard expectation, not a premium add-on.
 

3. The Great Decoupling: How geopolitics continues to reshape the global market

Arguably the most powerful force that has shaped the industry over the past 5 years is the ongoing geopolitical tension between the U.S. and China. Regulations by the US government such as NDAA Section 889 and the FCC’s Covered List have effectively created parallel markets: one where Chinese manufacturers dominate through scale and aggressive pricing, and another (primarily in North America and parts of Europe) where compliance, supply chain transparency, and cybersecurity posture are the primary differentiators.
 
The financial impact of these geopolitical pressures has been significant. With market leader Hikvision seeing its annual growth slow from over 28% in 2021 to just 3.5% in 2024, while NDAA-compliant vendors like Hanwha Vision sought to exploit the gap left in the market, capturing demand from government and critical infrastructure buyers, with its EBITDA margin projected to expand from 3% to 14% in 2025.
 
Increasing market bifurcation is forcing every global player to maintain multi-origin supply chains and bifurcated product lines, adding permanent cost and complexity to the market.
 

4. Market consolidation and the rise of platforms

Much of the activity we’ve observed in the M&A landscape is driven by a race to build unified platforms. Rather than simply acquiring hardware companies, major players are now focused on integrating VMS, cloud services, and AI analytics into a single, cohesive ecosystem.
 
Transactions such as Milestone Systems’ merger with its cloud-native sister company Arcules, and private equity-led carve-outs like the sale of Bosch’s Building Technologies business, underscore this strategic imperative. Longstanding players like Motorola Solutions and Canon continue to build out their portfolios through acquisition, aiming to own more of the technology stack from capture to analysis. For customers, this promises more streamlined solutions but also brings the risk of tighter ecosystem lock-in, making a vendor’s long-term strategy and commitment to openness more critical than ever.
 

5. Hybrid cloud becomes the dominant architecture

While VSaaS continues its rapid expansion, the notion of a pure-cloud future is being replaced by the practical reality of the hybrid model. A recent industry survey found that 60% of organizations plan to adopt a hybrid-cloud architecture, blending the benefits of on-premises recording with the flexibility of cloud management and storage.
 
This approach strikes a crucial balance. On-premises storage addresses bandwidth limitations, ensures operational resilience during network outages, and satisfies strict data residency requirements common in regulated sectors. The cloud, in turn, provides scalable long-term archiving, simplified multi-site management, and powerful centralized analytics. This trend is particularly pronounced in Europe, where privacy concerns mean over half of organizations expect to store no video in the cloud at all in 2025, according to our findings.
 

6. Privacy and compliance pose new challenges

Navigating the increasingly complex web of privacy regulations is becoming a critical challenge across the industry. The EU’s GDPR and, more recently, its AI Act, are creating new more stringent requirements for data protection, with significant consequences for surveillance. The AI Act, for instance, classifies remote biometric identification in public spaces as a prohibited practice outside of narrow law enforcement exceptions.
 
This regulatory pressure is forcing vendors to embrace "privacy-by-design" principles. Features that were once considered niche, such as default facial masking, strict role-based access with full audit trails, and automated redaction tools, are becoming essential for winning business in regulated markets. The €32 million fine levied against Amazon in France for excessive employee monitoring serves as a stark reminder that compliance is no longer a checkbox but a foundational requirement for market access.
 

7. Cybersecurity expectations are rising

As surveillance systems become more connected and data-rich, they have also become a prime target for cyberattacks. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security now emphasizes that IP-based video surveillance should be treated as critical infrastructure, requiring security-by-design at every level. Yet, as of mid-2025, over 40,000 internet-facing surveillance devices remain publicly discoverable with weak or default credentials.
 
This gap between risk and reality is closing fast. End-users, particularly in enterprise and government sectors, are now demanding higher cybersecurity standards, including secure boot processes, signed firmware, and transparent vulnerability management policies. Regulations like the EU’s NIS2 Directive are mandating stricter breach notification rules and risk management measures, making cybersecurity assurance a key factor in procurement decisions.
 
As we move into 2026, these trends will redefine the strategic priorities for all players across the surveillance value chain. Success will depend not only on technical capabilities but also on the ability to navigate regulatory complexity, geopolitical risk, and the evolving expectations of enterprise buyers. For a deeper exploration of the technologies, forecasts, and vendor dynamics shaping the market through 2030, consult our full research report.
 
Owen Kell is Senior Research Associate at Memoori Research