Yet we hold the view the decline in China’s video surveillance market, which mostly has to do with COVID, is only temporary, and a return to growth is expected for the near term once the country gets back on track.
A recent report by Novaira Insights cites a correction in the global video surveillance industry in 2022, due largely to a sharp decline in the
Chinese market in the wake of COVID-related lockdown measures.
The correction however is likely to be transient as China recovers, putting economic development and related projects back on track, the report added.
Video surveillance has long been a growth industry. But it took a downward turn last year, according to a recent report by Novaira Insights, which cited a 3.4 percent decline in the global video surveillance market in 2022. This, however, was largely due to a sharp decline in the Chinese market, which dropped 18.6 percent last year, the report showed.
According to the report, the China drop was primarily due to lockdowns causing restrictions on business during 2022 waves of the COVID pandemic. “In the public sector, Chinese government spending was diverted away from areas such as video surveillance, and towards battling COVID-19 and supporting the economy during the lockdowns,” said Josh Woodhouse, Lead Analyst and Founder of Novaira Insights. “China is estimated to have remained the world’s largest regional market for video surveillance equipment, accounting for 44 percent of the world market in 2022. However, this is a reduction from the previous year when it accounted for 52 percent.”
He added that outside China, most markets continued to grow, with the market in the world excluding China growing 13.2 percent in 2022.
As for this year, with China reopening and COVID-related restrictions lifted in most countries in the world, projects and other developmental efforts are back on track. This will be a positive development for the global video surveillance market, which the Novaira Insights report said will grow 11.8 percent this year, making it worth over US$27 billion in 2023.
China COVID measures
Indeed, 2022 can be described as a lockdown year for China. The first wave of restriction measures began in February 2022 in Shanghai after a surge in COVID cases, the largest lockdown measure since the Wuhan lockdown back in 2019 when the pandemic first emerged. Then, separate lockdown measures were announced throughout 2022 in different places in China, including Chengdu and Daqing.
The measures had a profound impact on the Chinese economy. According to the International Monetary Fund, China’s GDP grew a mere 3 percent in 2022, a drop from 8.5 percent for 2021. That, plus the people’s fatigue and mental anguish towards the restrictions, resulted in various protests throughout China towards the year-end, which eventually forced the Chinese government to abandon its zero-COVID policy and reopen the country at the end of 2022.
Impact on video surveillance
Like other industries, China’s video surveillance market felt the pinch of the lockdown measures and the resulting business inactivity. Perhaps nowhere can the lockdown impact on China’s video surveillance market be more revealing than Hikvision’s 2022 financial report, which reported 2022 video equipment sales of 65.9 billion RMB, a 1.12 percent growth from 2021’s 65.1 billion RMB. This contrasted sharply from the 16.9 percent growth between 2020 and 2021. 2023 Q1 revenue was also down 1.94 percent year-on-year.
Return to growth imminent
Yet we hold the view the decline in China’s video surveillance market is only temporary, and a return to growth is expected for the near term, for three reasons: 1. the country’s vast domestic market, once back on track, will provide the fuel, perhaps more than ever, for the country’s video surveillance market; 2. China’s active development and participation in certain verticals, especially
smart city and
smart transportation, will create huge video surveillance needs; and 3. China’s continued commitment to technology innovation, especially in the areas of
lowlight imaging and
bi-spectral video technologies, will further trigger demand from both domestic and overseas markets.
Indeed, various positive developments in the video surveillance/security market, both in China and rest of the world, give us reason to be optimistic. Perhaps H1 reports to be released by security companies later this year will provide further insights into how strong the market will fare in 2023 and 2024. Stay tuned for asmag.com’s 2023
Security 50 compilation to be released in November for more information and details.
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