After researching the UK access control market development and taking into account various other factors, MBD, a market specialist, comes to the following conclusions on UK access control market.
Market Review from 2005 to 2009
In 2009, the value of the access control market including sales and rental income is believed to have declined by a marginal level to US$1 billion. This decline is largely a result of the adverse economic climate, lower levels of business investment and reduced construction output, in particular the private commercial sector. Prior to 2009, growth is believed to have been sustained in each year between 2005 and 2008, culminating in an increase of 15 percent in nominal terms.
However annual growth levels slowed to 3 percent in 2008, down from 5-percent recorded in the previous three years. Market development in recent years has been partly driven by the development of more sophisticated and higher value systems. Furthermore, demand has been generated by the heightened perceived threat of terrorism, which has increased the focus on security in commercial and public buildings. Moreover, prior to 2008, growth has also been facilitated by increased construction output in the private commercial sector and the rise in the number of flats and apartments. Insurance requirements have also become more stringent in recent years, increasing demand for access control equipment.
Market Forecast from 2010 to 2014
The value of the UK access control market including sales and rental income is expected to increase over the next five years, with annual growth levels projected to fluctuate between 2 percent and 4 percent in real terms. In 2010, the development of the market is expected to be restricted due to the fragile economic recovery, and an anticipated moderate development in the construction sector. Overall, the value of the market is forecast to increase by a cumulative 14 percent in real terms between 2009 and 2014. A stronger development is expected to be hindered by increased competition from cheap imports from the Far East, in particular at the lower end of the market.
The market for access control is projected to continue to benefit from the trend towards integrated security solutions and advanced networked systems. Demand for IP based open-architecture systems, it enables the integration of access control with other security services is likely to continue, although IP-enabled systems are anticipated to command only a small share of the market during the forecast period.
In the commercial and public sector demand for access control systems is likely to increase in the medium-term due to the continued perceived threat of terrorist attacks, which has led to a renewed focus on security. In the public sector, education and health care are also expected to show further growth potential over the next few years. However, there are now increased uncertainties concerning future demand in the public sector, due to future public spending cuts, which will be inevitable regardless of which party will be in power.