The following 10 video surveillance predictions for 2012 serve to provide some guidance on the key trends and opportunities in each of these areas, which you might find useful in planning for the year ahead.
We forecast that by 2015, more than 70 percent of all network camera shipments will be of megapixel resolution. In spite of this, over the last 12 months, manufacturers have continued to push for greater numbers of megapixels.
The following 10 video surveillance predictions for 2012 serve to provide some guidance on the key trends and opportunities in each of these areas, which you might find useful in planning for the year ahead.
1.REFOCUSING ON IMAGE QUALITY
We forecast that by 2015, more than 70 percent of all network camera shipments will be of megapixel resolution. In spite of this, over the last 12 months, manufacturers have continued to push for greater numbers of megapixels. This trend plays to the common misconception that more megapixels/more resolution equates to better image quality. However, video quality is dependent on factors other than the number of megapixels on the sensor, such as the lens and image processing. IMS believes that for the vast majority of manufacturers, there will be a renewed focus on image quality in 2012.
To date, the market opportunity for “high-megapixel” cameras remains relatively niche. Manufacturers will need to further develop their points of differentiation. Likely advancements will be in well-established areas of need, such as low-light capability and wide-dynamic range; we will also see increasing adoption of P-iris lens technology and advances in live video.
2.FROM THE BRICS TO CIVETS
Given the Eurozone crisis that looks to potentially dampen global economic growth in 2012, where will video surveillance suppliers find opportunities for growth in the coming year?
Over the last few years, the BRICs have been the countries of choice for video surveillance vendors seeking new growth opportunities. Unlike the more developed markets in EMEA and North America, the BRICs were far less impacted by the recent economic downturn. IMS estimates that the total video surveillance equipment market in the BRICs was worth more than US$2.5 billion in 2010. With a growth rate exceeding 20 percent for the next two years, the BRICs will continue to offer video surveillance vendors solid growth opportunities, as the more established and mature video surveillance markets feel the impact from a potential second downturn. Beyond the BRICs, where should companies seek out new growth opportunities? The CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa) are being touted as the next set of tiger economies due to their rapidly industrializing economies. The indicators appear promising as the current long-term GDP rate for the CIVETS is in line with that for the BRICs.
In terms of spending on video surveillance equipment, the CIVETS are a minnow when compared to the BRICs. However, in the mid- to long-term, as infrastructure development and social mobility increase, the CIVETS will provide a strong opportunity for growth. In terms of market size, the CIVETS will not overtake the BRICs for many years, if at all; however, IMS believes that manufacturers will begin to explore the long-term growth potential of the CIVETS in 2012.
3.HD OVER COAX
So, what are the three key things that need to happen in 2012 to give HD-over-coax (focusing on HD-SDI only) equipment a platform for growth?
A.STANDARDIZATION
For HD over coax to penetrate the existing analog market, multivendor/brand compatibility is a must. Currently, there is little standardization among HD-SDI video surveillance equipment.
B.STORAGE COST
HD-SDI cameras transmit uncompressed HD video which can lead to high storage requirements and cost. For HD-SDI to breach the mainstream analog purchasing market, the price of storage needs to fall. Additionally, the supply of HD-over-coax compression ICs is effectively an oligopoly, as the market is perceived as niche and does not yet warrant other manufacturers entering the fray.
C.MARKET EDUCATION
Manufacturers need to engage the correct market segments and promote HD-over-coax products as a potential alternative to analog or network video surveillance solutions.
IMS predicts that manufacturers will continue to push HD-over-coax equipment to the end user, increasing availability and choice. With the backing from large vendors, it is increasingly likely that a number of other large video surveillance brands will begin to introduce some form of HD-over-coax products into their portfolios in 2012. As with last year's predictions, we do not believe that 2012 will herald an explosion in demand for HD over coax. However, IMS forecasts that the HD-over-coax category will still see strong growth, with the market size nearly doubling, as increasing numbers of manufacturers begin to push this technology forward.