When it comes to mobile network infrastructure discussions, LTE is the name on everyone's lips. Yet the very meaning of the acronym – “Long-Term Evolution” – is a hint that it isn't going to happen overnight. LTE's deployment as the mainstay 4-G technology will take place gradually, and won't even begin to gather real steam until 2013. Nonetheless, LTE is forecast by ABI Research to generate more than $11 billion in service revenue in the United States in 2015, with nearly a further $650 million to come from Western Europe.
“The LTE service revenue growth curve for Western Europe is practically a straight line,” said ABI Research Director Philip Solis. “That contrasts sharply with constantly accelerating revenue growth in the US, and is largely due to the sometimes exorbitant amounts European network operators paid for their 3-G spectrum: many of those operators want to squeeze every drop of value from their 3-G investments before migrating to 4-G..”
In the US, though, carriers such as Sprint deployed WiMAX, and began publically advertising 4-G as each city rolled out starting in late 2008. Other carriers, not wanting to be left out in the cold, started jumping on the 4-G bandwagon, with Verizon Wireless already launching LTE, and AT&T Wireless bringing its announced launch date forward in 2011.
“Although carriers will appreciate LTE's bandwidth efficiency and users its higher data speeds and lower latency, voice will only start to enter the LTE picture in a meaningful way in 2013 or 2014,” said Research Analyst Xavier Ortiz. “Existing networks still provide voice services with great coverage and reliability. Using LTE for voice will mean completely abandoning the tried-and-true legacy TDM backhaul and replacing it with IP backhaul at considerable cost. Carriers will only make that leap when 4-G can truly replace 2-G and 3-G for voice, although ABI Research recommends doing it sooner rather than later.”
ABI Research's “LTE and LTE-Advanced” study gives an LTE and LTE-Advanced standards overview and update, considering trends, network architecture, and the elements that make up that architecture, as well as approaches and strategies. Forecasts include device and equipment shipments broken down by region, as well as subscribers, service revenue and ARPU.