The physical security industry continues to operate in a changing business environment shaped by evolving customer demand, technological advances and broader geopolitical and supply chain uncertainties. To get a clearer picture of current market conditions and future prospects, asmag.com conducted a business sentiment survey sponsored by
ZKTeco as part of its Security 50 ranking, asking security players to share their views and observations on project pipeline trends, business expectations over the next year and key factors driving pipeline growth or contraction. We hope by conducting this survey, we can get a better understanding of how security businesses are faring and how things may look in the near term.
Project pipeline: Either growing or holding steady
When asked “Compared to this time last year, how would you describe your current project pipeline,” some 43 percent said it’s bigger than last year, breaking down to 28.6 percent for slightly bigger and 14.3 percent for significantly bigger. Meanwhile, 36.2 percent said the size stays about the same, while 22 percent said it’s smaller than last year. As the numbers indicate, nearly 80 percent report that their project pipeline is either growing or holding steady. This suggests that the industry is broadly resilient, with more companies experiencing growth than contraction.
When cross-referencing between respondents’ business type and pipeline, we can find that consultants report the most positive pipeline, followed by end users and distributors, while integrators are seeing flat growth. The fact that consultants are bullish while integrators are flat suggests advisory work and design is picking up, but project execution is not yet following.
Broad confidence in the security market
For the question: “How do you expect your business activity to change over the next year,” nearly half, at 48.9 percent, expressed optimism, with 31.1 saying it will be slightly bigger and 17.8 saying it will be significantly bigger. Meanwhile, 36.7 percent said it will be about the same, while 14.4 percent said it will be smaller. As we can see, nearly 85 percent of respondents expect their business activity to either grow or remain stable over the next 12 months. This points to broad confidence in the physical security market, with growth expectations substantially outweighing concerns about contraction.
Some respondents’ write-ins attest to this trend:
“The physical security industry in 2026 is growing rapidly and becoming more intelligent, integrated and AI-driven. Customers are moving from traditional CCTV toward AI-based video surveillance, analytics, access control and integrated security solutions … Overall, I see good growth opportunities as customers upgrade to smarter and more proactive security systems” – integrator from India.
“A lot of new projects will bring good opportunities for us, but in other countries that's different” – manufacturer from South Africa.
Project timelines remain relatively stable
As for the question, “Compared to last year, how long do projects take from first client contact to completion,” nearly half, at 48.4 percent, said it’s about the same, while 31 percent said it’s faster, with 24.5 percent saying slightly faster and 6.5 percent saying significantly faster. Meanwhile, 20.9 percent said it’s slower. While nearly half of respondents report no change, more companies say projects are getting faster than slower. However, we should also take note that about one in five report longer timelines. This suggests project execution challenges remain for a significant segment of the industry.
It’s also noteworthy that when cross-referencing, there are two meaningful relationships. Pipeline and outlook correlate moderately, indicating people who say their current pipeline is bigger also tend to be more optimistic about next year, which is unsurprising. The same trend can also be said of pipeline and speed, as respondents with a bigger pipeline also tend to report faster-moving projects. This makes intuitive sense – a full pipeline means deals are closing, not stalling.
Primary drivers of change
When asked the question, “What is the primary driver of change in your pipeline now,” most respondents (23.6 percent) cited geopolitics/supply chains, followed by demand from new customers (19.1 percent), regular upgrade cycles (16.9 percent), upgrade cycles driven by new technologies (16.9 percent), price pressure/delayed upgrades (14.6 percent) and demand from established customers (9 percent).
From the respondents’ answers, we can see that project pipelines in the physical security industry are shaped by a combination of factors, with geopolitics and supply chains being the most cited influence, while upgrade cycles collectively account for a substantial share of pipeline changes. At the same time, price pressures and delayed upgrades indicate that some customers remain cautious about spending.
Below are some respondents’ comments:
“Supply chain pressure in the lower-tier segment is enormous” – Manufacturer from India, who cites geopolitics/supply chains as the main driver.
“More competition but also more opportunities” – Manufacturer from China, who cites demand from new customers as the main driver.
“Not a lot or product innovation, but a boom in data center projects has given us a significant boost” – SI from Thailand, who cites demand from new customers as the main driver.
Overall, the findings suggest that industry activity depends not only on customer demand but also on broader market conditions and the pace of technological adoption. Indeed, with the war in Iran seeing no end in sight and the closure of the Strait of Hermuz leading to supply and logistics disruptions, staying agile and flexible has become critical for security players.
Overall resilience amid uncertainty
In conclusion, the survey paints a security industry that remains resilient but faces an uneven growth trajectory. While project timelines are also largely stable, optimism remains measured, as significant growth expectations are limited and some businesses continue to face delays and spending constraints. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty and supply chain disruptions remain major influences on market conditions. Moving forward, agility, supply chain resilience and the ability to respond to emerging customer needs will be critical. While the outlook is broadly positive, sustained growth will depend on how effectively security players navigate uncertainty and turn demand into completed projects.
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