Despite stagnant and slowing construction rates in Europe and China, the global market for mechanical locks and door hardware is expected to continue along a path of steady growth. Locking device sales are forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5 percent, from $7.2 billion in 2014 to more than $9 billion in 2019.
The main driver of industry growth in the market for locking devices is construction; it creates a demand for new locks that are installed directly into new buildings whilst also creating an additional indirect demand for retrofit business due to the increased amount of people/companies that move to new premises as a result of others moving into the newly constructed buildings.
Total construction spending in North America is expected to grow by barely 2 percent between 2014 and 2015, due mainly to a decline in residential construction that had experienced double-digit growth as recently as 2013. In South America currency fluctuation and the Brazilian depression have negatively affected construction spending. Eastern European growth has been constrained by political instability and heavy economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the United Nations. The Asian market is also experiencing some turbulence, because of the economic slowdown in China.
However, according to the latest Mechanical and Peripheral Locking Devices – 2015 report from IHS Technology, despite these economic constraints the market continues to advance. Growth is spurred on by the adoption of electronic locking devices in the mature markets of Western Europe and the US whereas legislation and building code changes in the drive growth in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Asia.
Increasing use of some of the electric door locking systems is partly caused by the growing popularity of access control systems. After all electronic access control systems provide stronger security than mechanical locks and also allow for the flexible integration of time-management and building-automation systems -- something that numerous companies require, as they seek out better economies of scale and ways to improve workflow management.
The Asian market’s move towards more widespread adoption of emergency-exit hardware is also driven in part by the growth of access control, however, another interesting factor is Japanese market’s recent u-turn on the use of such products. With Tokyo chosen to host the 2020 Olympics, plans for construction of new sporting stadia and supporting infrastructure have already been implemented. With the expected influx of tourism, it is perhaps no surprise that Japanese legislators have finally ruled in favour of installing emergency-exit device hardware in a number of these projects.
Staggering regional differences were also found in the popularity of various lockset types. In Europe and Asia, for example, mortise locks account for the majority of total market revenues; however, in the Americas they are almost exclusive reserved for high-traffic commercial installations, where their superior durability can offer better value for end-users.