IMS Research Lowers Video Surveillance Forecast but Outlook Still Positive

IMS Research has cut its video surveillance growth forecasts from those made in November 2008. Market conditions are expected to be significantly tougher in the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan and the United States than previously forecast. The retail market, which is the largest consumer of video surveillance equipment, will contract. This, coupled with weaker growth in other commercial markets, will impact growth for both the analog and network video surveillance markets.

In November 2008, IMS Research forecast that the global analog and network video surveillance markets would grow by 5 percent and 34 percent respectively during 2009. However, the most recent economic data suggests that the global economic recession will be deeper and longer than previously thought. Consequently, IMS Research has lowered its 2009 forecasts for the global analog and network video surveillance markets to 3 percent and 29 percent, respectively. In real terms, this represents more than three-quarters of US$1 billion less video surveillance revenue in 2009 and 2010 than in the original forecast.

Where previously the network camera market has grown in excess of 40 percent year-on-year, IMS Research is forecasting that market growth worldwide will be below 30 percent in 2009 with a softer than expected bounce back in 2010. A similar market scenario is predicted for the NVMS (network video management software) and video encoder markets. The analog video surveillance market is suffering the two-fold impact of the global recession and the ongoing transition to network video. As a result, the market is forecast to decline in the United States and EMEA this year.

Market research analyst Alastair Hayfield said, “No one is disputing that these are far more difficult times than the industry has experienced in recent memory. However, the market is proving to be far more resilient to the recession than most other industries.”

"That said, we expect the market to remain soft throughout 2009 and it will likely take until next year for the market to pick up,” Hayfield said. “The trickle-down from government stimulus packages will not be felt in the video surveillance market until late 2009 and, although credit availability is improving, corporate spending is unlikely to significantly improve until next year.”

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