The global market for advanced driver assistant systems (ADAS) will increase from the estimated US$16.6 billion in 2012 to more than $261 billion by the end of 2020, representing a compound annual growth rate of 41 percent, according to a recent ABI Research report.
The global market for advanced driver assistant systems (ADAS) will increase from the estimated US$16.6 billion in 2012 to more than $261 billion by the end of 2020, representing a compound annual growth rate of 41 percent, according to a recent ABI Research report.
“ADAS are increasingly being offered by mass-market OEMs such as Ford and Volkswagen,” said Gareth Owen, Research Analyst at ABI. “Whilst the majority are offered in bundles and sold as optional ‘driver-assist' packages, a growing number of OEMs are starting to fit some ADAS as standard equipment.”
ADAS are also becoming more sophisticated. For instance, in May 2013 Volvo will start offering a system that can stop a vehicle if a pedestrian or cyclist is in its immediate path.
A key catalyst driving the adoption of ADAS in Europe over the next five years will be the Euro New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) specifications. The specifications include three types of ADAS: Speed assistance systems (SAS), autonomous emergency braking (AEB), and lane departure warning (LDW) or lane keep assist.
According to Owen, the specifications also include detailed phase-in fitment requirements. “For example, SAS becomes part of NCAP as early as 2013 and OEMs will need to ensure that 50 percent of any new model production is fitted with SAS in order to score points,” said Owen. “By 2017, however, it is likely that all three ADAS will be required to be fitted as standard in all new models in order to qualify for the highest five star safety rating.”
Similar trends can be observed globally, although other regions such as North America and Asia-Pacific are expected to lag Europe by one to three years. In the U.S., the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration is expected to mandate collision imminent braking (CIB) which is similar to AEB. ADAS should also benefit from cost reductions in key components during the next four to five years, for example, radar sensors, which will act as an additional adoption driver.
In the commercial vehicle sector, LDW and AEB will be mandated in November 2013 in Europe. A similar mandate is expected to be passed in the U.S. within the next 12 to 24 months.